2026 Midyear Market Update
Same rules, new path
Despite geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation and election uncertainty, the economy has remained remarkably resilient. As AI-driven investment accelerates, deglobalization reshapes trade and supply chains and the midterms bring policy questions into focus, the second half of 2026 could provide important clues about the future path of U.S. and global economic growth and financial markets.
To help you understand these forces, the investment management team at BOK Financial has prepared its 2026 Midyear Market Update: Same rules, new path—featuring four online articles and a webinar.
Explore these areas of focus
The U.S. Economy
The biggest surprise of 2026 may be how well the U.S. economy has held up. While consumers remain important, a growing share of economic momentum is coming from capital investment in AI, manufacturing and infrastructure. Investors also are turning their attention to the midterm elections, where questions around affordability, immigration, energy policy and AI infrastructure could influence both economic expectations and market sentiment in the months ahead.
International
The global economy is still growing, but it's no longer moving in lockstep. As deglobalization reshapes trade relationships and supply chains, some countries’ economies are benefiting while others face greater challenges from higher energy costs, demographic changes and slower growth.
Energy and AI
The path ahead for AI may depend as much on access to cheap, reliable energy as it does on advancements in the technology itself. As demand for computing power surges, the biggest challenge may not be building smarter AI but rather generating enough energy to support it. With midterm elections bringing renewed debate around energy policy, infrastructure investment and regulation, one question looms: Will the policy environment provide the certainty needed to power the next phase of AI growth?
Financial Markets
As the midterm elections approach, investors are weighing policy uncertainty against a backdrop of resilient economic growth and strengthening corporate earnings. While markets have historically performed well after midterm elections regardless of the outcome, different results can shift the outlook for sectors such as defense, energy and healthcare by influencing spending priorities, regulatory policy and the broader business environment.
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