2023 Midyear Market Outlook
So far, 2023 has been the year of mixed signals. The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates to bring down inflation by purposely slowing the economy. But is the economy slowing? Some signs point to yes, while others point to no.
Yes, the manufacturing sector has been contracting, but the labor market overall remains tight, which is helping to keep wages up and consequently inflation higher than the Fed—or anyone—wants.
But how much can the Fed raise rates without putting more strain on the financial system or the country into a recession? The BOK Financial investment management team has prepared the following outlook on these key issues and more affecting the economy and financial markets for the remainder of the year.
FINANCIAL SYSTEM STRESS
Inflation, rates and debt
The turmoil in the banking system earlier this year raised the question of just how much the Fed’s rate hikes have been putting strain on some banks’ liquidity. What’s causing the strain, how strong is the financial system today and what’s being done to keep it healthy?
The Fed has stayed the course in its battle against high prices, despite industry turmoil.
3 factors lead experts to anticipate at least one more increase this year.
INFLATION
Slowing but prices still rising
Inflation has been coming down this year but not enough for the Fed’s (or anyone’s) liking. As the Fed actively works to slow to economy and bring inflation closer to its 2% target, what are some of the potential consequences? Our experts dive into high prices and the journey to lowering them.
The ‘why’ and the ‘how’ behind high prices, the Fed’s rate hikes and more.
Chief Investment Strategist Steve Wyett explains the Fed's latest inflation measure and why it matters.
RECESSION
Market and economic signals
Everyone—from politicians to market prognosticators to people on the street—has been talking about the potential for recession this year. We’re now more than six months in, so where is it? What are the chances of a recession happening before year-end and what’s the likely severity if it does?
At least a mild recession may be ahead.
Even defining recession isn’t as straightforward as you might think.
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Navigating uncertainty:
Long-term focus key
What’s the best way to deal with economic uncertainty and market volatility? Our experts break down what you should—and shouldn’t—do with your investments.
BOK Financial Chief Investment Strategist Steve Wyett explains why diversifying your assets should be a continual process and why it's key during both good and bad times.
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Subscribe (Opens in a new tab)Meet our experts
BOK Financial's experts share their diverse knowledge to break down complex topics, provide timely updates on the state of our economy and dig into industry trends. Get to know these interesting individuals representing just some of our company's areas of expertise.
J. Brian Henderson, CFA
Chief Investment OfficerJ. Brian Henderson is responsible for leading the Alternative Investments group, Strategic Investment Advisors, and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc.
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Steve Wyett, CFA
Chief Investment StrategistSteve M. Wyett, CFA is responsible for tracking and communicating about economic indicators affecting the investment climate and overseeing BOK Financial's investment management message.
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Matthew Stephani, CFA
President, Cavanal Hill Investment ManagementMatt Stephani is a successful, highly motivated financial markets professional with 20 years of experience managing public equities across all sectors.
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Melissa Lord
Director, Investment Fiduciary and Consulting ServicesMelissa Lord, CFP, AIF, is a senior investment consultant and director of fiduciary and consulting services within BOK Financial’s Strategic Investment Advisors.
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