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2023 Midyear Market Outlook

So far, 2023 has been the year of mixed signals. The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates to bring down inflation by purposely slowing the economy. But is the economy slowing? Some signs point to yes, while others point to no.

Yes, the manufacturing sector has been contracting, but the labor market overall remains tight, which is helping to keep wages up and consequently inflation higher than the Fed—or anyone—wants.

But how much can the Fed raise rates without putting more strain on the financial system or the country into a recession? The BOK Financial investment management team has prepared the following outlook on these key issues and more affecting the economy and financial markets for the remainder of the year.

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Inflation, rates and debt

The turmoil in the banking system earlier this year raised the question of just how much the Fed’s rate hikes have been putting strain on some banks’ liquidity. What’s causing the strain, how strong is the financial system today and what’s being done to keep it healthy?


Slowing but prices still rising

Inflation has been coming down this year but not enough for the Fed’s (or anyone’s) liking. As the Fed actively works to slow to economy and bring inflation closer to its 2% target, what are some of the potential consequences? Our experts dive into high prices and the journey to lowering them.

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Market and economic signals

Everyone—from politicians to market prognosticators to people on the street—has been talking about the potential for recession this year. We’re now more than six months in, so where is it? What are the chances of a recession happening before year-end and what’s the likely severity if it does?


Navigating uncertainty:
Long-term focus key

What’s the best way to deal with economic uncertainty and market volatility? Our experts break down what you should—and shouldn’t—do with your investments.

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Meet our experts

BOK Financial's experts share their diverse knowledge to break down complex topics, provide timely updates on the state of our economy and dig into industry trends. Get to know these interesting individuals representing just some of our company's areas of expertise.

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2023 Midyear Market Outlook

Financial System Stress Video

Inflation Video

Investment Strategy Video

Recession Video